A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
